Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Who will win the World Cup 2011?

I’m sure every one of you is already busy predicting the Quarter Finals line up and then the ultimate winner. I encourage you to continue your good work but please keep the following stats in mind while doing so.
1975 was an open World Cup. WI won the edition beating Australia in the Finals. WI already beat Australia at the group stage too. Also WI did not lose any match at the group stage. Host: England
1979 – WI started as the firm favorites. They lived up to the expectation and won the World Cup beating England. WI and England did not meet anytime during the group stage as they were positioned in different groups. Also WI did not lose any game at the group stage. Host: England
1983 – Again WI started favorites. But, India won this World Cup beating WI in the Finals. India beat WI at the group stage too. India also lost to WI and Australia at the group stage. Host: England
1987 – India and Pakistan started joint favorites. However, Australia won the World Cup beating England. Australia and England did not play each other until Finals. Australia lost one group match against India. Host: India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka
1992 –Australia & England started joint favorites. Pakistan won the World Cup beating England in the Finals. Pakistan shared points with England at the group stage due to rain. Pakistan lost to WI, India and South Africa at the group stage. Host: Australia and New Zealand
 1996 – India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Australia started favorites. Sri Lanka went on to win the world cup beating Australia in the Finals. Australia walked over their group match to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka did not lose any group match. Host: India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka
1999 – South Africa, England & Australia started favorites. Australia won the edition beating Pakistan in the Finals. However Australia lost to Pakistan and NZ during the group stage. Host: England
2003 – Australia started firm favorites. They won the edition beating India in the finals. They won all their games in this tournament. Particularly, they beat India in the group stage. Host: South Africa & Zimbabwe
2007 – Australia started clean favorites. They won the edition beating Sri Lanka in the Finals. They won all their games in this edition. Australia beat Sri Lanka in the group stage too. Host: West Indies
2011 – ?
This edition has fallen into the category of Open World Cup. If your prediction is Australia, then Australia should lose one group match based on the stats from 1983, 1987, 1992, 1996 and 1999. If they don’t lose a group game, don’t be disappointed. After all there is still a minority theory of 1975 and 1996 where a joint favorite won the world cup without losing a game at group stage.
If you had predicted India, the ghost of the host nation not winning a World Cup is going to haunt you. But you should still be satisfied with the fact that a co-host has won the Trophy in 1996.
If India meets one of its pool members in the finals, the outcome could be interesting based on history.
If India meets England, it should be open finals based on 1992 stats. In 1992 England and Pakistan shared points in the group game. However, India should fancy their chances based on 1979, 1992 & 1987. After all England choked in more finals and also in the final that held in India.
If India meets South Africa in the finals, it is still not doomsday as there is a minority theory of 1999 World cup where Australia won the World Cup beating Pakistan despite losing to the same team in the group game.
If India meets West Indies, unfortunately we don’t know the result of the group game yet. However the stats of 1983 world cup should back your prediction.
If you had predicted Sri Lanka, the challenge actually comes in the Semi Finals. No sub continent team won the Semi Finals when played at home.  India and Pakistan failed in 1987, while India flunked again in 1996. This time Sri Lanka will be playing their Semi Finals at home. The Semi Finals jinx holds good for India too. However Pakistan gets a lifeline here as they will be playing their Semi Finals at a home away from home.
If the team playing finals is facing an opposition outside their group, then we have only two World cup results for guidance, 1979 and 1987. WI and Australia beat England in both these occasions, a team that wasn’t their group member. Going into the game, both WI and Australia had higher net run rate over their opposition. So, if 2011 finalists are from different groups, then the team with higher net run rate going into the game has edge over the other.
Similarly you can apply this prediction theory to your favorite team.

Bottom Line: With so much history for pointers, who would be your Winner of the 2011 World Cup?


Dinesh
Crazy Cricket Lover

PS: The article is an inspiration from a post published in cricinfo sometime before the start of the world cup

1 comment:

  1. Cricket fan (srinivasa rangan)March 15, 2011 at 12:11 PM

    Aus-- No law of avg is against them (although they make the mockery of that)
    SL--Dont want them to win b coz of tamil issues(we might argue game is above all that still.....)
    Pak--They can't(dont have the team also dont hav imran akram and javed)
    Eng--talk sumthng else...
    WI--sorry guys..
    Nz--Underdogs r always supported the most but that is not which decides the game
    Ind--Although we dont have the team we have enough batting power in our team which can be critical in a knockout game(Gilly hundred in 2007 final one eexample).

    So keeping my fingers crossed...

    ReplyDelete

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